Iowa Caucus’ Photo-Finish Produces Two Winners: Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum (ContributorNetwork)
COMMENTARY | SIOUX CITY, Iowa — It’s 1:16 a.m. in Iowa, and there is a missing precinct, and if you’ve found it, please call the Republican Party of Iowa…
Iowa’s precinct caucuses delivered the closest race ever. As I type, Mitt Romney holds a one-vote lead over Rick Santorum, with one precinct in Clinton not reporting. I imagine someone will be knocking on the door of a sound-asleep precinct chair very shortly.
Whoever squeaks out the win, there are two clear winners in Iowa — Santorum and Romney. They both proved that a ground game and organization are important — Santorum built his this year, Romney built his four years ago and re-activated it this fall. Only Ron Paul had a matching effort, and he ran a strong third.
Santorum ran strong in rural areas, Romney in suburbia, and Paul in urban (at least what we Iowans consider urban).
Those three get tickets out of Iowa, and all are headed to New Hampshire. That may be a risky play for Santorum, who hasn’t spent anything close to the amount of effort in the Granite State that he put into Iowa. I had thought his smart move would be to go to South Carolina. A lopsided loss in New Hampshire may make it tougher in South Carolina.
Rick Perry, despite buying TV ads in South Carolina, already is headed home to Texas. He didn’t get his ticket out of Iowa. And “reassess” usually means “gracefully withdraw.” Michele Bachmann is on fumes, and will have to go into debt to stay in the race. Gingrich abandons his happy warrior daemon or with a promise to go negative on Romney next week.
Update: Romney edges up to win by 8 votes, delivering the closest margin of victory ever in the Iowa caucuses.
Santorum will no doubt be the “story.” But it’s tough for me to imagine he has the money and other human resources to compete in multiple states at once — New Hampshire, Carolina, and Florida. Romney, however, has the capital on both fronts all running full out.
For Romney, it’s redemption from four years ago. True, he’d like a larger margin, but as an elected official who won his first primary by 17 votes, a win is a win is a win.